Absolute Uncertainty

“There simply is no place for certainty in fields that are influenced by psychological fluctuations, irrationality, and randomness.”

_Howard Marks, July 17, 2024 Memo: The Folly of Certainty


Psychological fluctuations, irrationality, and randomness – that sounds a lot like a church congregation. 

We must not confuse the eternal, infallible word of God with everything else in the church.  Even your understanding of what the eternal, infallible word of God means should be treated with intellectual humility.  There’s been many absolutely certain preachers who turned out to be wrong. 

And using the “God told me” card does not get you out of jail free either. 

The story goes that one Sunday ten different preachers showed up at a church who needed a new pastor.  Obviously there was a lot of confusion.  They all did agree on one thing, they agreed to call their Bishop and find out why he sent all ten of them to the same church.  The answer was obvious.  All ten had told the Bishop that “God told them that they should go to the church, so, how could the Bishop argue with God?  He sent them all and figured they could sort it out themselves. 

I don’t know how the story turned out, but I feel pretty sure that at least nine of the ten didn’t really hear God tell them to go to the new church.

Truth is unchanging and endures, but facts change; “psychological fluctuations, irrationally, and randomness” happens.  

Yes, I know, God is in control and He works all things together for the good of those who love Him and are called according to His purpose (Romans 8:28), but He tends to take His time and seldom explains Himself. 

I also know that people gravitate towards those who give easy answers and thus it is so easy to become “Mr. Answer Man” (or Pastor Answer Man). But resist. 

What most of us need is not quick-fix certainty.  What we need is enough uncertainty that it drives us to the one sure thing in all the universe – the God of the Universe revealed in Jesus Christ. 

Point people in that direction. That’s the one sure thing that will make all the uncertainty of this life manageable.

The ONE THING for today: Tread lightly and walk humbly.  Intellectual humility is the sign of a man or woman who is certain about the things that really matter.